Saturday 31 December 2011

The Year of the Nat.

The UN building 20...?

Thanks to Alex Salmond, it's now become a probability rather than a pie-in-the-sky possibility.

2011 has been the "Year of the Nat" according to Alan Cochrane at the Telegraph. Of course the subliminal message Nat=Rat is what he meant...but is has been a fantastic year for Scotland and the SNP.
Let us hope that the next year shall be better. A Guid New Year everyone.



  1. Sláinte Conan...

    It has been a good year. We must take it forward carefully. The public can be fickle. We mustn't lose what we have gained.

    You picture gives us hope though. One day it will be there, and I'll go to New York to see it. (Unless by that time the UN HQ is in Shanghai!)

  2. Ho-ho. Couldn't have put it better. And here's me thinking that Cochrane was spelled Cockrain.

    Bliadhna mhath ùr.

  3. Conan

    Subjective Probability

    A subjective probability describes an individual's personal judgement about how likely a particular event is to occur. It is not based on any precise computation but is often a reasonable assessment by a knowledgeable person.

    Like all probabilities, a subjective probability is conventionally expressed on a scale from 0 to 1; a rare event has a subjective probability close to 0, a very common event has a subjective probability close to 1.

    A person's subjective probability of an event describes his/her degree of belief in the event.

    A Rangers supporter might say, "I believe that Rangers have probability of 0.9 of winning the Scottish Premier Division this year since they have been playing really well."

    He he he he he!


    Independent Events

    Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events gives us no information about whether or not the other event will occur; that is, the events have no influence on each other.

    In probability theory we say that two events, A and B, are independent if the probability that they both occur is equal to the product of the probabilities of the two individual events, i.e.
    P(A n B) = P(A).P(B)

    The idea of independence can be extended to more than two events. For example, A, B and C are independent if:

    A and B are independent; A and C are independent and B and C are independent (pairwise independence);
    P(A n B n C) = P(A).P(B).P(C)

    Work that on out

    Happy new year

  4. Niko

    You have been snorting the baby powder again I can tell.


    I would say it has gone to his brain BUT!!!

  5. Jusrt like the old days on the Herald and Scotsman.

    A Guid New Year to you S and all the usual suspects.

    Cremant d'Alsace opened and not bad it is too.

    Take care

    One very mixed up Panda

  6. OK Niko but does it make my Lottery ticket the winner?

    Subjectively or objectively speaking.

  7. Tris, I have the use of an apartment in Shanghai, honestly.

  8. Happy New Year Conan and all the best to you and yours for 2012.

    The times they are a changing.

    Of all the money that e’er I had, I spent it in good company.
    And of all the harm that e’er I've done, alas it was to none but me.
    And all I've done for want of wit, to memory now I can’t recall.
    So fill to me the parting glass. Goodnight and joy be with you all.

    Of all the comrades that e’er I had, they're sorry for my going away,
    And all the sweethearts that e’er I had, they would wish me one more day to stay,
    But since it falls unto my lot that I should rise and you should not,

    A man may drink and not be drunk, a man may fight and not be slain
    A man may court a pretty girl and perhaps be welcomed back again
    But since it has so ordered been by a time to rise and a time to fall
    Come fill to me the parting glass, good night and joy be with you all
    Come fill to me the parting glass, good night and joy be with you all

  9. Oh Willie, that made me greet; it was a guid mate's party piece. He died far too young. His daughter sang "Now westlin winds" at his funeral, another heartwrenching song I can't listen to withoot a tear...

  10. I missed your NYD post, Conan. I haven't been online much the past few days. Family and all that.

    Hope you're having a wonderful year. Cochrane is wrong that LAST year was the year of the Nat. The real one will be 2014. He's gonna cry and whine a lot, poor thing.

  11. The Year of the nat you say. Hmmmm very interesting